The South Beach Case Study: Year One Complete

The first year of the South Beach Case Study concluded with a compelling NBA Finals that saw the Dallas Mavericks defeat the Miami Heat in six games.  Although Miami- specifically LeBron James- mightily disappointed in the Finals, don't be quick to call the experiment a failure.   

1. This team was designed by Pat Riley, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, James, and according to the media, Satan himself, to be a contender for many years.  The case study is in its infancy. 
2. If James plays half as well in the Finals as he had all season, the first year of this experiment would have concluded with a championship.     

Calling the 2011 season a rough start to the experiment in terms of variables understates how flawed Miami's team was constructed around the Big Three.  Udonis Haslem and Mike Miller, the team's fourth and fifth best players, were injured throughout the year and missed the habit-forming process that is the NBA regular season.  The Three Kings were flanked by limited one-way players, rusting veterans, and zero-way piles of rust (I'm looking at you, Mike Bibby).  Yet, even with their heavy lifters needing time to gel and redundancy getting in the way of a good time, Miami won 58 games and vanquished every Eastern Conference foe in the playoffs.

From left:  Chris Bosh, LeBron James and Dwyane Wade. 

What have we learned?  I'll posit questions from the beginning of the year and briefly give conclusions.

Can two ball-dominant slashers, James and Wade, work together?  Yes, but not perfectly.  An inside/outside combination always works better because it's more balanced.  James and Wade tweaked their off-ball games this year to feature more cutting, spot-up shooting and reading of offensive rebounding lanes.  However, old habits crept through at times, displaying themselves in the form of the two augmenting the playbook to feature "isolation and hold the ball for 18 seconds before acting" sets.  Not very effective basketball.

 Will the egos of the three amigos collide or will they remember the sacrifices they promised to make in order to play with each other?  To put it simply, they remembered.  James and Wade appeared to share the ball in crunch time, too.   

What about substitution patterns and minutes distributions? Will their careers be extended because they don't have to lift their teams alone anymore?  Well, they carried a heavy burden this year.  Spoelstra couldn't afford to really rest his prime players, and without a true post defender, the three stars expended a lot of energy making the defense elite (fifth in defensive rating).  

What happens to a superstar's stats when he isn't playing in a single superstar-centric offense anymore?  The offensive stats went down a bit for Wade and James and a lot for Bosh.  This is related to the first question.  When the ball-handlers go to iso-ball, they waste the help they signed up to play with.

The team would be best served obtaining a point guard able and willing to take command of the offense from James and Wade.  If Miami runs some actual plays that turn James and Wade into finishers, Miami's offense could get to an all-time level.   

The SBCS gets the summer off.  Year two will begin...well, with the lockout looming, that's as unpredictable as South Beach itself.       

Viva Las Vegas, Hola NBA Finals

Vegas baby...

There I was in Las Vegas.  My first time.  I was unsure of what to do, of what the rules were or what proper etiquette was.  And I didn't want anybody to know how inexperienced I was, especially since Sin City specializes in this type of exciting endeavor.

Finally working up the courage to give it up, I pulled my wallet out and saw I only had $10.  Maybe it's better this way.

I approached with the money in hand and asked if $10 was enough.  Thankfully, she told me that $10 was the minimum and gave me my choices.  I selected what I wanted, what I thought was going to happen based on my knowledge of the subject.

I don't know how long it lasted- 20, maybe 25 minutes.  I was on top of the world, my hard work being paid off at this very moment in this crazy city at this ballerific hotel.  I was in the special room with everybody else, watching men and women being served drinks and smokes and food while they did what I was doing.  They seemed much more at ease, much more at home with this lifestyle.  I would have been more uncomfortable if I wasn't feeling the euphoria of conquest.

And then, Vegas turned into the place you hear about from your mature family members and corny vacation guides and old creepy people still shell-shocked by how much money they lost at Atlantic City 16 years ago.  The house- the House- started taking over, and I felt powerless to stop it.  What would I tell people about this trip?  It wasn't about the $10 I'd be losing.  It'd be the fact that my game two halftime prediction that the Miami Heat would defeat the Dallas Mavericks by four or more points was about to be eviscerated by one of the most epic comebacks in NBA Finals history.  My first ever sports bet in the most appropriate locale to do it in, the infamously inappropriate Las Vegas, Nevada.  I saw a 15-point lead and a $10 wager sail away faster than the growth of a new social media site.

I don't regret it though.  The contact buzz I obtained around those sports betting junkies (and I don't mean from the Macanudos) was worth it, and I made a good play- Dallas just hit on 16 and grabbed a five.    

Just for you Knicks fans:  I saw Patrick Ewing in Las Vegas, right on the Bellagio floor.  He was personable enough, though he wasn't taking pictures at the time.  Dude's the tallest person I've ever seen in person close up.

Some points on the Finals:

Dwyane Wade has been a two-way menace in the Finals. 

• Dwyane Wade is playing magnificent ball right now.  I wasn't aware of how much some pre-series rest could do for one's legs, because Wade certainly doesn't look like the same player he was against Chicago.

•  And neither does LeBron James for that matter.  I admire the fact that he's deferring to his great teammate, a teammate with a better matchup.  He's also facilitating and playing good defense.  But he hasn't been aggressive at any point during the last three games.  I think now that it's a best-of-three series, he'll look to handle more of the load.

• Maybe I'm wrong about LeBron though.  Maybe we're wrong to be criticizing him for his play.  It's quite possible that the difference between James "deferring and playing smart team ball" and "being scared and toothless in the face of the massive pressure of the Finals stage" is winning and losing.

• Dirk Nowitzki has been superman in both wins and losses.  He's a full-fledged offensive Constant now.  Well done Dirk, and I hope you are 100 percent for tomorrow's game.

• Jason Kidd is doing whatever it takes to win.  His guidance has been instrumental to me, especially when I see him passing the ball to JJ Barea or Jason Terry and essentially initiating their pick-n-roll with Dirk while Kidd goes and spreads the floor with his jumper.

For those wondering if I designed the first half of this post intentionally to make it seem like something, err, different, the answer is yes.  Next post, I’ll talk about a certain retiree.   

      

ECF Preview: Battle of the Flawed Teams

Derrick Rose will need to step against Miami's lengthy defense. 

The Miami Heat and the Chicago Bulls are beginning their Eastern Conference Finals series as I type this.  I'm just going to quickly describe why I believe the Miami Heat are going to be victorious.

Miami's defense is the key.  Chicago's offense is incredibly flawed, relying on one player to do more heavy lifting than any team in recent memory.  Derrick Rose was my MVP, and as I said before, that isn't necessarily a good thing for Chicago's team success.  It's incredibly difficult to win a title if your team is so flawed that you require one player to do so much in a certain area of the game, regardless of how great that player is.  The Heat defense is so quick to react and so long on the perimeter that I can't see Chicago's offense having any continuity, meaning the Bulls will not perform well when they eventually call on their sixth and seventh best players to make big plays.  Luol Deng is the next best wing player Chicago has, but he doesn't handle the ball, and LeBron James has been playing great defense this year.  Statistically, the Bulls are poor when it comes to taking care of the ball- mainly because they have no ball-handlers aside from the MVP- and that means trouble against James and Dwyane Wade.

The Bulls can expose a Heat flaw, however.  Miami's defense is at its best when it has slender bodies in the middle that can move quickly and cover space- when they have their small lineup in.  The only thing the Bulls do above average is offensive rebound with tough guys like Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah; each of them should be able to push Joel Anthony and Chris Bosh around and score off putbacks in the paint.  That's how Chicago is going to stay in this series offensively.

Defensively, Chicago's players arrange themselves in unison beautifully to block a player's movement.  It's beautiful and it should make things difficult for James, Wade and Chris Bosh.  Miami's offensive output is going to rely on the trust James and Wade have in their teammates.  James needs to trust that when he passes to James Jones, Jones will either take the open shot or pass the ball to Wade, who will be set to attack a scrambled defense that James just put into chaos with a drive off a pick-n-roll.  It doesn't seem like the Heat have had a problem with this thus far, which is why I think Miami's offense will be just fine.  They have the two best offensive players in the series; all they need to do is not waste that talent advantage.

I'm taking Miami in six games.  Chicago doesn't have the interior isolation scorers necessary to take advantage of the Heat's biggest flaw.  Miami has the speed on defense that will expose Chicago's biggest flaw of being too reliant on one creator.