Mavs Reclaim Western Throne: A WCF Review

The Dallas Mavericks defeated the Oklahoma City Thunder 4-1 in the Western Conference Finals.  4-1.  Hmm, that's the ratio of Russell Westbrook's shot attempts to Kevin Durant's shot attempts, correct?  

Dallas finds itself back in the Finals for the first time since 2006, and as it awaits the winner of Chicago/Miami, I will hold off on previewing Miami vs. Dallas, Part II, simply out of respect for the hardworking, likable Bulls.  Instead, I'll talk about what happened out West.   

• Nick Collison is a championship role player, in the same mold as Shane Battier, Udonis Haslem, Landry Fields, James Posey and Derek Fisher.  Collison played tough man defense on some of the best power forwards in the league, Zach Randolph and Dirk Nowitzki.  OKC needs to find a way to keep him.

• OKC needs a new offensive dynamic between its two stars, Durant and Westbrook.  In the playoffs, Westbrook had a USG of 34.4 but only an offensive rating of 103.  Compare that to Kevin Wayne Durant's USG of 29 with an offensive rating of 119.  Putting USG and offensive rating together gives you an idea of how well a player can perform at a certain offensive role.  Putting the ball in Westbrook's hands gives you an idea of how uncertain he is at accomplishing his offensive role.

• How do you temper Westbrook's USG while giving Durant more offensive responsibility?  Either Westbrook becomes a better floor general, or Durant improves his handles to the point where he can consistently make the types of plays for teammates like he did in the first half of game four.  It's probably a combination of both.  If Durant is going to get to the level of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Kobe Bryant as far as offensive anchors go, he needs to be able to take control of the offense.

• Tyson Chandler is the all-important tight end who acts as a possession receiver- he doesn't make huge plays on offense, but he catches the ball and he's reliable at finishing plays with authority.  It comes in handy on third down.  He's perfect for the Maverick offense with his low volume, high efficiency play.  Brendan Haywood and Chandler are excellent co-defensive anchors next to Dirk Nowitzki.

•   Dirk is good.

Westbrook and league MVP Derrick Rose get compared because they're both young, ultra-athletic point guards who are a bit raw relative to Chris Paul, Deron Williams and Steve Nash.  The comparison is too simple, however, and relies on the possibility that they are the two best pure athletes at the position in NBA history.

Rose is on another level in my opinion. If you put Westbrook on Chicago, the Bulls would average 25 turnovers a game. Westbrook is not the floor general that Rose can be, which is exactly what Chicago needs. Chicago is such a flawed offensive team that they need Rose to be a volume scorer/creator AND floor general. Now, Rose isn't on CP3's or Nash's level as far as playmaking and decision making, but he's not incompetent like Westbrook is either.

Rose's USG in the playoffs is a league-high 34.9; his offensive rating is a respectable 109.  So despite them playing similar roles, Rose appears to be more effective at the role.  Never mind that Westbrook doesn't seem smart enough to understand that he shouldn't even be attempting to perform said role since he has a scoring champion on his team to help him.  Rose doesn't even have a James Harden to relieve ball-handling duties.

Westbrook needs to work on his game a lot this summer. Rose is closer to his ceiling than Westbrook is to his; I question whether Westbrook will ever get there though, as much as I like him. He may actually have as much or more potential than Rose.  Maybe not though- maybe Rose's combination of body control and side-winding explosion enable him to do things even Westbrook can't do, for all of his considerable athletic ability.

But I digress about the seemingly impossible athletic moves they can make...Rose is clearly superior to Westbrook right now.      

Gloating and Hoping

Ahh, put the blame on me.  I should have been gloating about calling the Memphis victory over San Antonio and talking about the second round, but I was too darn busy this week.  Instead, I've let some major second round events pass on by.  Alas, I'll talk about my thoughts following the first round as well as how I think the second round will finish.  

Round Thoughts First

• Obviously, my obligatory "glotation" point regarding calling San Antonio's demise.  The Spurs had neither an offensive constant nor a defensive constant this year, instead relying on a style of play suited for regular season basketball.  They met a good team that had no fear and matched up well with them.

• Tim Duncan is done as a player who can elevate his game to even a semi-dominant level.  He's at a point now where you need to question who you would rather have in a playoff series- current Duncan or “regular all-star PF/C who is athletic and produces decently.”

  

• The Magic screwed up.  Dwight Howard played like a top-25 player in NBA history this season and crushed Atlanta's bevy of sacrifices, yet Orlando was snapped in half.  Props to Atlanta for emphatically rejecting mine and errbody else's predictions of a Magic victory.

• Dallas vs. Portland was, as I predicted, was the craziest series in the first round.  Dallas showed some metal by getting back up after Portland's game 4 performance.  LaMarcus Aldridge didn't have the series I was suspecting he'd have, but he was the first option in the playoffs for the first time; his performance was permissible.  

  

• Chicago and Boston were exposed as flawed-yet-formidable, while Miami flexed not only their advantage in top-tier talent, but also their advantage when that talent is clicking.  The Lakers struggled against a quick point who happens to be a borderline top five player in the league, while the Thunder took care of business against Denver.  Nothing shocking in these matchups.  

The Elite Eight

•   Man....before the round started, I would have picked Miami, Chicago, Los Angeles and Oklahoma City to advance.  Some of these picks- and one especially- aren't looking good.  I'm almost glad I was busy this past week....

• I still expect Chicago, Miami and Oklahoma City to advance.  Chicago regained home court advantage and has the best player in that series.

•  Miami is still in control of its series.  The Heat's defense seems to be able to key on Boston's players and use the polarizing-to-Boston-itself Rajon Rondo to its advantage.  I think they'll pull it off.

  

• The Thunder should still win their series.  Their length and ability to cut down on paint opportunities for the Grizz will be the turning point.  However, Memphis does have legitimate matchup advantages on their side, notably their ability to put excellent defenders on the Thunder's perimeter players who supply most of the team's offense.  

The Lakers?  Jeez....I guess I could be an ass and call "L.A. in seven."  If I'm off the mark, it would seem too off-the-charts a prediction to take seriously, and if I'm right, I appear to be a genius.  Though the low risk-high reward prediction is tempting, I'm not going to do that.  I don't know which game Dallas is going to take, but they will make the Conference Finals.  It's too difficult a task to ask an older team like the Lakers to kick it into high gear for four games in a row and decimate a quality team in this setting.  It's just too much.  I doubt they even get it to game seven.  

Jut in case- Lakers in seven. Happy Mother's Day!

Thoughts on the First Rounds of the First Round

Whoa.  One word comes to mind when mulling over what happened in the NBA this weekend.  I'll allow Senator Clay Davis, a character from my favorite show, The Wire, to divulge it for me here.

Some thoughts...
 

• Game one between Chicago and Indiana was a microcosm of the season for Derrick Rose and the Bulls.  They win despite obvious flaws in their team construction, owing their success to a stingy defense and an offensively overburdened superstar.  When he had a hand in each of those seven straight points to give the Bulls the lead, I couldn't help but think, "Man, this guy has way too much responsibility for this team to continually succeed this way, but damn is he playing brilliant basketball."  Rose was a basketball hero Saturday afternoon. 

• I'm going to stand by my prediction that Philly is going to give Miami a hard time in their series.  Thaddeus Young was superb; his ability to occupy one of Miami's forwards defensively needs to be examined as a way for the Sixers to equalize the talent gap.  Lebron James didn't dominate with his scoring, which is what I expected with Andre Iguodala defending him, but he still affected the game in other ways, which is what everybody should expect from the game's best player.  It'll be '08 Boston vs. Atlanta Part II.  

•  Anybody who blames Dwight for Orlando's loss is a fool.  The man dropped 46 and 19 and trashed any defender he faced.  In my opinion, Dwight's real test will be in games three and four; Orlando will make adjustments for game two and get the victory as Atlanta displays the same defense against Howard.  They'll change things up in game three.  That is when Dwight will be tested as an offensive constant in this series.  

•  Dallas against Portland does indeed look to be the most confusing matchup of the first round.  Portland had game one in hand before Dirk Nowitzki took over down the stretch, utilizing his "soft" style of play to get to the free throw line at will in the fourth quarter.  Dallas found no answer for the Andre Miller-to-Lamarcus Aldridge connection, however.  We're looking at a tight series.

• My nutty prediction has legs!  Memphis stole game one from the Spurs after Shane Battier buried a go-ahead 3-point shot.  Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph pounded the Spurs inside, and no Spur could make up for the loss of Manu Ginobili.  I expect Manu to come back, which will alleviate the defensive pressure on Tony Parker, who had a sub-par shooting game.  San Antonio needs to defend much better than they did, lest they lose to an eighth seed, fulfill my prophecy and find themselves at the top of my list of Most Impressive Things I've Said in Life.

• Chris Paul must have watched Derrick Rose on Saturday.  He definitely sees that Rose is a new shark in the point guard waters, a top-of-the-food-chain apex predator who is claiming more and more votes as Best Point Guard in the League.  He dropped 33 and 14 on the defending champs at Staples and displayed arguably the best ball-handling in the league.  Laker fans probably should not be on tenterhooks just yet considering L.A.'s second best player, Pau Gasol, put up a horrendous performance and the team is infamous for needing extreme motivation before truly playing at its best for an opponent.  Good win by New Orleans. 

• How many broken hearts are there in New York right now?  I can't wait to pick up the Times/Daily News/Post/whatever you don't ridicule me for reading to see the sports headlines.  Amar'e's slashes looked like prime Michael Jordan as he got into the midpost, exploded past the primary defender and whirled, spun, jumped and dunked with power on big men.  Toney Douglas delivered a ballsy 3 in the fourth.  And the Knicks still couldn't win.  That's tough.  At least they showed they aren't afraid to take it to the bullies of the Eastern Conference.

• The first game of a playoff series hardly ever proves anything.  However, the way Denver lost game one (aside from the botched goaltending non-call that made myself, a former intramural basketball ref, cringe) may be telling.  When the Thunder needed baskets, they went to Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook.  Denver doesn't have that caliber of player right now, using more of an ensemble cast.  As fun as it is to watch a team high on chemistry have success, chemistry may not always be enough to overcome top-end talent. 

•  In my mind, Nene's dunk-fest legitimates my vote for him as an all-star starter this year.  
• I miss watching Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler and Raymond Felton play on the Knicks.  
• I am starting to see that I was wrong to consider Tyler Hansbrough a Leon Powe-type of player.  Or maybe Carlos Boozer's terrible defense made him look good.  Either way, his jumper looked great, and he was surprisingly fluid as he handled the ball.
• Kobe Bryant looked petrified with all lenses eying him.  He looked like he was being so careful, trying not to mouth the wrong words at any camera, which he assumed were all watching him closely.  Still played well.
• Watching Westbrook defend J.R. Smith reminded me watching two cobras fighting each other.  Two of the most electrically athletic players in the league matching up was pretty cool.  

I keep wanting to look ahead.  It seems all of the major contenders have checks and balances on each other, so there isn't a clear favorite right now because matchups will dictate who goes on.  For now, I'm just going to enjoy Round One.